封基大比例分红的日子一天比一天近了，但大盘的风险也一天大过一天。大家也知道分红后的折价率一定会缩小，一般估算分红的收益都是参考两个指标，一个是除权折价率，这是按照分红后如果市价的下降正好等于分红额来计算的，其缺点是无法知道通过分红投资者的收益率。所以另外有投资者按照分红后如果折价率不变，市价要涨多少才能使得分红后的折价率等于分红前的折价率来计算投资者的收益率，这样的收益率当然也是一种理想状态，实际是不可能分红后当天因折价率扩大而使得市价涨到和分红前的折价率相等。所以笔者按照分红后的折价回落到三个月、六个月、一年中最大的折价率来估算分红套利收益率，这样可能和实际情况更加吻合。从下表中我们可以看到，平均来说，只有分红后折价率回到三个月中最大折价率，封基才有正收益，否则就可能产生负收益。分红后回到一年中最大折价率后，只有分红最抠门的国泰公司的金鑫和金泰还是正收益。所以从以上分析中也可以看到，所谓封基没有好坏，只有哪个阶段持有最合适。这也是笔者一直重仓持有金鑫的一个很重要的原因。
备注：预计分红额是按照90％计算的。
| 名称 | 期望分红 | 本周折价率 | 除权折价率 | 套利收益率 | 三个月最大折价率 | 套利收益率3 | 六个月最大折价率 | 套利收益率6 | 一年最大折价率 | 套利收益率12 |
| 鸿飞 | 1.5181 | -5.32% | -9.56% | 2.49% | -8.22% | 0.79% | -13.89% | -2.55% | -18.61% | -5.32% |
| 科汇 | 2.2253 | -3.23% | -6.09% | 1.57% | -10.94% | -2.66% | -16.90% | -5.93% | -26.25% | -11.05% |
| 科翔 | 2.1613 | -3.43% | -5.82% | 1.46% | -12.21% | -3.90% | -16.85% | -6.73% | -18.19% | -7.55% |
| 汉鼎 | 0.7587 | -5.61% | -7.64% | 1.58% | -14.31% | -5.19% | -20.82% | -10.26% | -21.10% | -10.48% |
| 天华 | 0.9298 | -14.23% | -23.76% | 6.65% | -18.24% | 3.85% | -26.62% | -2.00% | -28.13% | -3.06% |
| 金盛 | 1.2950 | -9.46% | -17.67% | 4.85% | -15.19% | 1.47% | -25.35% | -4.54% | -25.35% | -4.54% |
| 裕泽 | 1.5300 | -8.82% | -16.91% | 4.63% | -15.45% | 0.83% | -28.56% | -6.66% | -29.55% | -7.23% |
| 金泰 | 1.7314 | -17.07% | -34.26% | 10.33% | -24.24% | 6.02% | -34.13% | 0.07% | -34.13% | 0.07% |
| 开元 | 1.4993 | -14.29% | -27.03% | 7.86% | -19.72% | 4.51% | -29.61% | -1.59% | -31.67% | -2.87% |
| 兴华 | 1.7391 | -12.76% | -25.13% | 7.20% | -21.84% | 1.91% | -32.09% | -4.06% | -35.51% | -6.05% |
| 安信 | 0.7673 | -21.74% | -29.20% | 7.10% | -26.80% | 2.28% | -31.81% | -2.48% | -37.49% | -7.88% |
| 裕阳 | 1.0900 | -17.46% | -25.71% | 6.79% | -21.65% | 3.34% | -33.40% | -6.33% | -36.10% | -8.55% |
| 普惠 | 1.0733 | -21.87% | -31.27% | 8.42% | -25.99% | 4.73% | -33.48% | -1.97% | -38.10% | -6.11% |
| 泰和 | 1.6400 | -12.09% | -24.03% | 6.83% | -17.32% | 3.84% | -30.06% | -3.46% | -31.42% | -4.24% |
| 同益 | 0.8680 | -20.19% | -29.51% | 7.99% | -27.94% | 1.35% | -35.57% | -5.19% | -37.35% | -6.72% |
| 景宏 | 0.7936 | -22.54% | -30.29% | 7.45% | -23.73% | 6.31% | -34.18% | -3.73% | -36.65% | -6.10% |
| 汉盛 | 1.0429 | -19.40% | -27.19% | 6.89% | -26.76% | 0.38% | -33.98% | -6.02% | -35.37% | -7.25% |
| 安顺 | 0.9339 | -19.45% | -29.28% | 8.10% | -26.49% | 2.30% | -31.73% | -2.03% | -34.42% | -4.25% |
| 裕隆 | 1.7100 | -13.33% | -26.79% | 7.73% | -20.43% | 3.65% | -30.80% | -2.31% | -37.58% | -6.20% |
| 兴和 | 1.1888 | -19.67% | -33.05% | 9.91% | -27.79% | 3.90% | -35.08% | -1.50% | -37.67% | -3.43% |
| 普丰 | 1.0455 | -21.37% | -33.37% | 9.77% | -27.36% | 4.90% | -34.94% | -1.27% | -36.51% | -2.56% |
| 天元 | 1.1883 | -17.91% | -29.08% | 8.38% | -23.04% | 4.54% | -32.17% | -2.32% | -36.11% | -5.27% |
| 金鑫 | 1.4111 | -19.16% | -37.28% | 11.52% | -26.95% | 6.57% | -35.75% | 0.97% | -35.75% | 0.97% |
| 同盛 | 1.0765 | -20.50% | -34.27% | 10.36% | -28.61% | 4.26% | -35.98% | -1.29% | -38.26% | -3.00% |
| 景福 | 0.7572 | -22.88% | -31.96% | 8.43% | -28.03% | 3.65% | -35.39% | -3.19% | -38.55% | -6.12% |
| 汉兴 | 0.4856 | -23.22% | -28.74% | 5.81% | -30.68% | -2.04% | -37.29% | -8.99% | -37.77% | -9.50% |
| 通乾 | 0.9980 | -20.69% | -30.50% | 8.39% | -25.64% | 4.16% | -35.53% | -4.30% | -36.81% | -5.39% |
| 鸿阳 | 0.9842 | -20.31% | -35.13% | 10.75% | -28.13% | 5.07% | -34.57% | 0.41% | -38.18% | -2.21% |
| 科瑞 | 1.7017 | -15.45% | -28.86% | 8.49% | -24.53% | 2.74% | -31.43% | -1.63% | -36.80% | -5.03% |
| 丰和 | 1.5700 | -14.88% | -31.48% | 9.22% | -21.57% | 5.50% | -34.90% | -1.90% | -36.84% | -2.97% |
| 久嘉 | 2.0857 | -13.38% | -30.73% | 8.72% | -20.22% | 5.29% | -30.54% | 0.10% | -36.84% | -3.07% |
| 银丰 | 0.4886 | -20.65% | -26.83% | 6.00% | -29.51% | -2.60% | -33.62% | -6.58% | -33.62% | -6.58% |
| 平均 | 1.2590 | -16.01% | -26.20% | 7.24% | -22.49% | 2.55% | -30.84% | -3.41% | -33.52% | -5.30% |
意见与建议
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